Every state is experiencing a slowdown in property market momentum. Leading the decline in market confidence is the residential sector, as the recently announced capital gains tax and negative gearing changes are putting downward pressures on property prices. The outlook for the commercial sectors is mixed, with industrial continuing to show resilience while retail and office are in cautious territory.

  • The API Property Market Outlook Index has fallen for the third straight quarter to 5.1 in Q3 (from 7.3 in Q4 2025).
  • The interest rate outlook continues to put downward pressures on property prices across residential, commercial and agricultural sectors.
  • There is no consensus among property professionals surveyed that the CGT and negative gearing reforms will increase new housing supply.
  • Over 60% of survey respondents believe housing affordability for renters will worsen as a result of the tax reforms.

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