The Australian property market has been losing momentum in recent months, with sentiments in the residential sector particularly downbeat. The Australian Property Market Outlook Q4 2026 collates the views of 384 property professionals across the nation to predict the peak-to-trough decline in home values and specify a likely timeframe for the housing market recovery. The report also covers the outlook for the office, retail, industrial and agricultural sectors.

Research highlights:

  • The Australian Property Market Outlook Index has fallen to 4.3 (out of 10) for Q4 2026, which indicates expectations of challenging conditions ahead.
  • Several states are predicted to have an 11% peak-to-trough decline in home values before market recovery begins in July to September 2027.
  • Fear of more interest rate hikes and cost-of-living concerns are the key barriers to housing market recovery.
  • Demand for data centres has helped the industrial property sector maintain a positive outlook despite the broader market downturn.
  • The agricultural property sector also has a solid outlook, although property professionals have rated the El Nino risk as above moderate.

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